Cellulosic Ethanol Market

Cellulosic Ethanol Market Outlook (2022-2032)

The global sales of Cellulosic Ethanol Market in 2021 was held at US$ 980.5 Mn. With 46.4% CAGR during 2022 – 2032, the market is projected to grow to US$ 56.3 Bn by the end of 2032. Energy Crop-based Cellulosic Ethanol is expected to be the highest revenue-generating segment, projected to grow at a CAGR of over 51.9% during 2022 – 2032.

Report Attributes	Details
Global Cellulosic Ethanol Market Size (2022)	US$ 1.3 Bn
Global Market Size (2032)	US$ 56.3 Bn
Global Market CAGR (2022-2032)	46.4%
U.S. Market CAGR (2022 – 2032)	49.3%
Key Companies Covered	Dow Fiberight GranBio Abengoa Novozymes BP PLC BlueFire Renewables, Inc. Beta Renewables SpA Shandong Longlive Bio-Technology Poet-DSM Advanced Biofuels LLC

Revenue of Cellulosic Ethanol Market from 2017 to 2021 Compared to Demand Outlook for 2022 to 2032

As per the Global Cellulosic Ethanol Market research by Fact.MR - a market research and competitive intelligence provider, historically, from 2017 to 2021, the value of the Cellulosic Ethanol Market increased at around 30.2% CAGR.

The key revenue drivers which affect the Cellulosic Ethanol demand are growing prices for conventional fuels, carbon dioxide emissions from conventional fuels that contribute to global warming, and the usage of coal for energy production that can cause the combustion of cancer-causing chemicals such ethyl benzene, xylene, toluene, and benzene which can be substituted with cellulosic ethanol for traditional fuels. Besides, cellulosic ethanol also generates jobs by supporting farmers, installing new gas pumps, and utilizing water-saving plant layouts. Additionally, the nation producing cellulosic ethanol has the ability to generate cellulosic ethanol on-site, thus saving money on crude oil exports.

Current and past government regulations that call for increasing the production of cellulosic ethanol for use as a fuel, gas, feedstock, power source, and for medical purposes are pushing the cellulosic ethanol market. As cellulosic ethanol consumption rises, the likelihood that items made from it will be utilized as a fuel in the future rises. The growing use of fuel in developing countries is also helping to positively enhance the global cellulosic ethanol market.

What Factors Are Propelling Cellulosic Ethanol Demand?

Initiatives for cellulosic ethanol are driven in large part by the growing concern over anthropogenic climate change, which is spurred by evidence of rising temperatures and their human causes. Today, only a small minority dispute that steps must be taken to minimize greenhouse gas emissions, and numerous countries heavily rely on cellulosic ethanols in their fight against climate change.

The use of cellulosic ethanol is considered a substantial source of emissions reduction when compared to the use of petroleum-based fuels for transportation, electricity, heat, and other purposes. Concerns about climate change have played a significant role in the drive to increase the use of cellulosic ethanol, but other environmental concerns have also played a significant role, not the least of which is the need to reduce air pollution in metropolitan areas.

Modern biomass burning techniques or the use of biofuels in engines could reduce the controlled emissions associated with the use of gasoline. Additionally, a dependable method of trash disposal is provided by the production of biofuels from garbage, which decomposes municipal solid waste.

Supporting the agricultural sector and farm incomes has been a significant factor in the expansion of the cellulosic ethanol market and is the primary driver of biofuel initiatives in a number of developed countries. In countries with heavily supported agricultural sectors, reviving agriculture as a source of cellulosic ethanol feedstock is seen as a solution to the dual problems of excessive agricultural production and declining worldwide market prospects.

Decision-makers are greatly influenced by the possibility to increase agricultural earnings while decreasing taxes and subsidies. A growing number of developing countries are being targeted for their biofuel production in order to support rural development and energy security, despite the fact that many OECD nations, particularly those in Europe and North America, have long embraced natural energy sources to support agriculture.

Which Factors are restraining the growth of the Cellulosic Ethanol Market?

Many of the plants used as feedstock for cellulosic ethanol can either be consumed directly by people or utilized indirectly as animal feed. Diverting these crops for the production of cellulosic ethanol may increase agricultural activity, pollution, and food costs. Cellulosic feedstock might be in competition with the food sector for resources like land, water, and fertilizer.

Cellulosic ethanol production may therefore result in fewer unexpected developments. By increasing the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, changes to land use practices may cause a rise in GHG emissions. Cellulosic ethanol feedstock grown in tropical deforestation, such as soybeans in the Amazon and palm oil in Southeast Asia, is primarily responsible for high GHG emissions. Even the use of cellulosic feedstock can increase food costs, promoting the growth of agriculture in underdeveloped countries while also generating greenhouse gases and damaging biodiversity.

Which Region is projected to offer the Largest Cellulosic Ethanol Market Opportunity?

North America is one of the largest fuel consumers globally; however, it is also planning to sizeably reduce its crude oil dependency. Owing to this, the country has been focusing on the production of ethanol. Cellulosic ethanol market in North America is projected to cross a valuation of US$ 20 Bn by 2032, accounting for over 35% of the global consumption.

Some of the key players in the North American Cellulosic Ethanol Market are also world-leading companies which include Ginkgo Bioworks, Cargill Inc, Bioamber Inc, Genomatica Inc, Raizen S.A., Myriant Corporation & Cool Planet Energy Systems Inc.

Country-wise Analysis

U.S. Cellulosic Ethanol Market Analysis

The United States is expected to account for the highest market of US$ 18.5 Bn by the end of 2032. It is expected to be projected to account for an absolute dollar opportunity of US$ 18.1 Bn. The United States is the world's leading producer and user of bioethanol coupled with its per day consumption of 838 thousand barrels.

In the US, ethanol accounts for about 10% of the gasoline sold for internal combustion engines. The name of this fuel is E10. Any gasoline-powered vehicle can run on E10. After 2001, mid-size work vehicles, trucks, and cars can all use the E15. Only flexible fuel vehicles are allowed to run on ethanol concentrations higher than 15%. E85, a gasoline that only works on flexible fuel tanks and includes 51 to 83% ethanol, is commonly accessible in the Midwest.

Besides, the U.S. government with its policies also supports the consumption of cellulosic ethanol. If landowners and operators plant, cultivate and supply biomass feedstock crops to facilities that manufacture advanced biofuels, they may be eligible for financial help from the Biomass Crop Assistance Program (BCAP; Section 9010). In addition to a 50% reimbursement of the expenditures related to establishing a biomass feedstock crop, qualified feedstock producers can receive annual payments for up to five years for herbaceous feedstock and up to 15 years for woody feedstock.

The Bio-refinery Assistance Program (Section 9003) provides loan guarantees to make it possible to develop, build, and retrofit commercial-scale bio-refineries that produce advanced biofuels. The Bioenergy Program for Advanced Biofuels (Section 9005) Qualified advanced biofuel producers may be paid to stimulate increased production of advanced biofuels, or fuels made from renewable biomass other than maize kernel starch.

The Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (ARPA-E) was established within the U.S. Department of Energy with the aim of funding initiatives to create revolutionary technologies that will lessen the nation's reliance on foreign energy imports, reduce U.S. energy-related emissions, including greenhouse gases, improve energy efficiency throughout the economy, and ensure that the United States maintains its leadership in developing and implementing cutting-edge technologies.

There are grants from the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture for the construction, retrofitting, or other upgrading of fueling equipment and infrastructure necessary to distribute ethanol blends higher than 10% or biodiesel blends higher than 5%.

Brazil Cellulosic Ethanol Market Analysis

Brazil has been investing significantly in the production of ethanol. Brazil of south America consumes and produces the second highest Ethanol. Brazil started its cellulosic ethanol journey with the launch of the Brazilian Government Proalcool (Pro-alcohol) program. Brazil's current mandate, which is a 27 percent requirement, paved the way for increased consumer interest and fuel adoption. Brazil's ethanol production has expanded 45 times since 1975 as a result of intensive research efforts to boost sugarcane productivity by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), even if the price has dropped to 70%. The biggest worldwide transportation matrix de-carbonization program is also from Brazil.

U.K. Cellulosic Ethanol Market Analysis

By 2032, the market for cellulosic ethanol is projected to reach a valuation of US$ 5.4 Bn by 2032. U.K.’s first cellulosic plant was started in 2008. TMO Renewables Ltd. is among the first to come up with a new technique for converting various biomass to biofuel. Additionally, the Vivergo Fuels site in Hull will soon be re-opening after an announcement by the State for Transportation of E10 gas at gas stations throughout the United Kingdom.

Japan Cellulosic Ethanol Market Analysis

Japan has been producing bioethanol since 2007, when BioEthanol Japan, the world's first company to produce cellulosic ethanol from wood construction waste, began commercial production in its facility in Osaka Prefecture. The plant at that site has a capacity of 1.4 million gallons a year (370,000 gallons US). By 2032, the market value for cellulosic ethanol in Japan is projected to reach US$ 3 Bn.

Category-wise Insights

Why Energy Crop as a Feedstock for Cellulosic Ethanol production is projected to Witness the Fastest Growth?

The highest-used energy crop for Cellulosic Ethanol production globally is Corn. Demand growth of grains as a raw material for Cellulosic Ethanol was recorded at 42.3% during 2017 – 2021, while it is expected to grow at CAGR of 51.9% during 2022 – 2023. Starch and sugar-based feedstock are the main sources of almost all the ethanol produced worldwide. These foods contain sugar that is simple to extract and ferment, which makes it easier to produce huge amounts of ethanol.

The most important crop in the US is corn, which is also a prominent source of supply for domestic ethanol manufacturing. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which is projected at 15 billion gallons, accepts corn ethanol as a renewable fuel. This guarantees that there will be sufficient cattle to meet domestic and international markets as well as the demand for animal feed.

Nearly a century of infrastructure construction and research has benefited corn output. Producers are aware and skilled with the corn crop. Maize is a crop that naturally fits new uses like bio-ethanol because of its infrastructure and grower expertise.

Which end-use of Cellulosic Ethanol is expected to be Most Lucrative?

The transportation end-use of Cellulosic Ethanol worldwide accounts for the highest end-use market for Cellulosic Ethanol. Demand growth of transportation end-usage was recorded at 32.4% during 2017 – 2021, while it is expected to grow at CAGR of 46.5% during 2022 – 2023. In many nations, cellulosic ethanol is primarily used as a transportation fuel. Cellulosic ethanol consumption is rising globally as a result of increased conventional fuel prices, savings from depreciating foreign currencies, and cellulosic ethanol's low environmental impact emissions.

According to the niti.gov report, ethanol can be combined in India at a 20% concentration. The research also includes a yearly plan for the nation's gradual transition to E20 ethanol. The nation might gain a lot from blending 20% ethanol by 2025. These advantages include annual savings of Rs 30,000 crore in foreign exchange, energy security, lower carbon emissions, better air quality, self-sufficiency, use of damaged food grains, higher farmer earnings, employment development, and enhanced investment prospects.

Competitive Analysis

The companies in the Cellulosic Ethanol market are focused on improving cellulosic ethanol, with minimum waste. Some of the key producers of cellulosic ethanol include Dow, Fiberight, GranBio, Abengoa, Novozymes, BP PLC, BlueFire Renewables, Inc., Beta Renewables SpA, Shandong Longlive Bio-Technology, and Poet-DSM Advanced Biofuels LLC.

Some of the recent developments in the Cellulosic Ethanol market are :

• In March 2022, a contract was announced between a corporation located in Hyderabad and a farmers' organization in Latur, Maharashtra. It will be India’s first ethanol production refinery project that will start with a daily capacity of 30,000 liters.
• In January 2022, Clariant announced that with its first commercial Sunliquid facility it is possible to make cellulosic ethanol from agricultural waste.
• In October 2022, Stuttgart Airport tested innovative bioethanol fuel from CropEnergies. A 20% renewable ethanol fuel is being tested by CropEnergies, Stuttgart Airport, and Mabanaft Deutschland, a mineral oil firm.

Cellulosic Ethanol Market Segmentation

• By Feedstock :

  • Energy Crop
  • Agriculture Waste
  • Municipal Solid Waste
  • Forest Residue
  • Other Feedstock

• By End-Use :

  • Cellulosic Ethnol Application in Transportation
  • Industrial Application of Cellulosic Ethnol

• By Region :

  • North America
  • Latin America
  • Europe
  • APAC
  • MEA