Communication-based Train Control System Market By Train Type (CBTC Systems for Metros, CBTC Systems for High-speed Trains), By Grade of Automation (Communication-based Train Control Systems by GoA 1, GoA 2, GoA 3, GoA 4) - Forecast to 2021–2031

Communication-based Train Control System Market Outlook

Accroding to the communication-based train control (CBTC) system market analysis by Fact.MR, communication-based train control systems for train hold more than 45% market share, which is estimated to be valued at US$ 24.5 Bn by 2031. CBTC system demand is estimated to surge at the rate of 11.5% CAGR and create a value of around US$ 10.4 Bn by 2031.

Revenue from Communication-based train Control Systems from 2016 to 2020 Compared to Demand Outlook for 2021 to 2031

CBTC systems consist of ATS (automatic train supervision), ATO (automatic train operation), and ATP (automatic train protection) systems that make a train fully automatic and driverless.

Rail accidents is the prime reason for the adoption of CBTC systems, and in terms of accidents, according to the International Union of Railways, Europe is the leading region with 58% or 6,239 rail accidents over the last two decades, followed by Africa with 29% or 3,048 rail accidents. In 2019, more than 60% of rail accidents in Norway occurred due to rail collisions.

However, the above-mentioned facts are evident to understand the sensitivity of traditional train control systems. Communication-based train control systems are smart enough to reduce accidents by almost 99.9% and increase efficiency.

Rapidly growing population, rising need for fast and safe commute, requirement of accident-free rail transportation, etc., are driving demand for communication-based train control systems for metros and trains.

CBTC system are expected to capture more than 2/5 share of overall automatic train controllers. Communication-based train control systems for passengers and freight rail systems are widely used to reduce human error and protect cargo and goods from theft. Demand for CBTC systems for subways is continuously increasing, owing to high adoption across developed countries to make their rail lines safe.

Furthermore, ETCS (European Train Control System) is likely to grow at a double-digit CAGR and offer a billion-dollar opportunity. European countries such as Germany and the U.K. are prominent contributors to the market. Also, ETCS is widely adopted in other regions such as South Asia & Oceania and the Middle East & Africa.

For improving passenger experience and reducing the risk of train mishaps in the rail transportation sector, automation technologies have witnessed a strong growth rate over the past few years. Semi-automatic trains or driverless trains are in application in countries such as South Korea, Japan, China, and UAE.

Due to the introduction of sensor-based technology, communication between two radio stations is possible. Sensor-based technology is anticipated to eliminate human errors associated with data interpretation and accurately respond to signals coming from wayside systems. Due to this fact, integration of sensor-based technology in railways is likely to reduce the number of train accidents across the globe and provide a hike to the demand trajectory of communication-based train controllers.

Global demand for communication-based train control systems is likely to increase at 11.5% CAGR and create an absolute dollar opportunity of around 4.1 Bn during the assessment period.

Will Infrastructural Development across the Globe Provide a Spurt to Demand for Semi-automatic Train Operations?

Mounting infrastructure development around the globe is anticipated to drive demand for driverless train operations. Industrialization and urbanization have led to noteworthy infrastructure development and growth of rail lines in the Asia Pacific and Europe regions over the past few years.

Moreover, increasing government spending on infrastructure development is likely to provide ample opportunities over the coming years. For instance, the Indian government has invested US$ 27.2 Bn for infrastructure development for 2021-22.

Which Region is Estimated to Offer High Growth Opportunities for Communication-based Rail Signaling and Train Control Systems?

The Asia Pacific market is largely dominated by East Asia, with China holding a majority of market share. South Korea has developed more than 170 km of fully automated new metro lines and also extended its existing metro lines by nearly 20 km in the last 10 years, followed by UAE with 80 km and 27 km, respectively.

Moreover, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Dubai, and Vancouver have fully automated metro lines of more than 130 km, 97 km, 80 km, and 79 km, respectively. South Korea and France are projected to cross the 250 km and 200 km target by 2023, followed by Malaysia and the UAE with 150 km and 130 km, respectively.

However, from the perspective and deep analysis of the latest trends in the communication-based train control system space, South Asia and Oceania is likely to gain traction during the assessment period. This is likely to increase demand for unattended train operations across the Asia Pacific region.

Country-wise Analysis

How are Middle Eastern Countries Developing Rail Infrastructure through Collaborations?

GCC countries and North Africa are holding nearly 1/3 market share in the MEA market. Dubai is solely having nearly 120 km fully automated metro rail lines, out of which, around 90 km is a new line and 30 km is the extended line.

Furthermore, Middle Eastern countries have around 116 fully automated metro lines, where around 69% are capable of carrying 300 to 700 passenger, and the remaining 31% is able to carry under 300 passengers, per train.

MEA has more than 12 projected under construction sites that are likely to be completed by 2026, and will construct more than 500 km of rail track. Moreover, countries are looking to develop fast trains in urban areas, and this is opening up opportunities for manufacturers and suppliers.

How is the U.S. Market for CBTC Systems Shaping Up?

Demand for communication-based train control systems in the U.S is likely to witness growth of around 12.7% CAGR but lose 51 BPS during the forecasted years. Demand for communication-based train control systems in the U.S. is estimated to grow 3.7X and provide US$ 868.6 Bn absolute dollar opportunity.

On the other hand, the CBTC systems market in Canada is projected to grow 3.8X at a CAGR of 13%. Canada is shifting its focus from metro trains to high-speed trains, and releasing tenders for the construction of the tracks. This is likely to offer a million-dollar absolute dollar opportunity to market players over the forecast period.

Which Countries in Europe are Adopting High-speed Rail at a Fast Pace?

Europe is the second-largest market holding nearly one-third share in the global communication-based train control system market, and likely to grow at 11% CAGR over the decade.

Communication-based train operation systems in France are gaining traction, where various cities such as Paris, Lyon, and Marseille are the key contributors towards the adoption of this high-end technology.

Category-wise Insights

Which Type of Train Accounts for the Largest Share in CBTC Systems?

Communication-based train control systems are widely used in metros and high-speed trains. However, countries are prioritizing metro rail as it entails low cost and has numerous benefits as compared to high-speed train.

Metro trains account for a higher market revenue, and the segment is projected to expand at 11.2% CAGR through 2031.

Which Grade of Automation Holds Significant Market Share?

Communication-based train control systems consist of four grades of automation, known as GOA1, GOA2, GOA3, and GOA4. Among these, GOA4 is the highest level and provides a driverless service that also requires fewer attendants. It requires high-end rail infrastructure and high cost to implement.

However, majority of countries are limited to GOA3. GOA2 is adopted in almost every country, and this makes it the largest market shareholder holding more than 1/4 market share.

Competitive Analysis

Companies are devoted to reducing CBTC system setup cost to gain a competitive edge. Moreover, more than 50% market share is acquired by the top 5 players who are keenly concentrating on mergers, acquisition, partnerships, etc.

Some of the recent development are as follows:

• On 5 August 2021, Siemens Mobility entered into an agreement to acquire Sqills, a Netherlands-based company and a leading of cloud-based inventory management provider. This acquisition will allow Siemens to provide digital and software offerings in the transportation segment of Siemens Mobility across the globe.
• In July 2021, Alstom invested US$ 115,788 in Campus Cyber SAS, a European company, to support the “Campus Cyber” initiative. This will strengthen the company’s objective to lead the way to smarter and greener mobility worldwide.
• On 6 May 2021, Alstom has entered into an agreement with “Régie Autonome des Transports Parisiens” (RATP), a public transport operator. According to this collaboration, the company would be offering its I-CBTC Systems, automatic train operation system to lines 7bis, 10, 3bis, and 3 of the Paris Metro in France. Trends of automatic train operation systems in France (Paris) are dynamic and technologies are continuously evolving to upgrade existing train control systems.
• On 29 January 2021, Alstom completed the acquisition of Bombardier Transportation for enabling greener transportation worldwide. This acquisition will lead to remarkable growth of the organization in the near future due to surging demand for greener and smarter transportation.

More recent developments related to the market have been tracked by Fact.MR analysts to identify the strategies adopted by players as well as technologies that may transform the industry. Technologies that are developed by leaders have been discussed in the full report and available on demand.

Communication-based Train Control System Industry Report Scope

Market Segments Covered in Communication-Based Train Control (CBTC) System Industry Analysis

• By Train Type

  • CBTC Systems for Metros
  • CBTC Systems for High-speed Trains
• By Grade of Automation
  • Communication-based Train Control Systems by GoA 1
  • Communication-based Train Control Systems by GoA 2
  • Communication-based Train Control Systems by GoA 3
  • Communication-based Train Control Systems by GoA 4