Biofuels Market

Biofuels Market Growth Outlook (2022-2032)

The global revenue from the sales of biofuels in 2021 was US$ 140.43 Billion. The industry is likely to expand at a CAGR of 4.8% during 2022 – 2032.

Bioethanol is expected to be the highest revenue generating segment, accounting for an absolute dollar opportunity of nearly US$ 53.6 Billion over the next ten years.

Report Attributes	Details
Market Size in 2021	US$ 140.43 Billion
Market Value in 2022	US$ 147.17 Billion
Anticipated Forecast Value (2032)	US$ 235.20 Billion
Projected Growth Rate (2022-2032)	4.8% CAGR
Expected Market Share of the U.S. Market (2032)	45%
Anticipated CAGR of China (2022-2032)	6%
Major Biofuels Providers	Bunge Limited Archer Daniels Midland Company Valero Energy Corp. Petrobras Butamax Renewable Energy Corp. Wilmar International Algenol Pacific Ethanol Inc. Poet, Llc Flint Hills Resources The Andersons, Inc. Raizen S.A. Copersucar S.A. Abengoa, S. A. Alpha Biofuels

Consumption Analysis of Biofuels from 2017 to 2021 Compared to Demand Outlook for 2022 to 2032

As per the biofuels industry research by Fact.MR - a market research and competitive intelligence provider, historically, from 2017 to 2021, market value increased at around 4.3% CAGR, where revenue was largely dominated by the U.S., Brazil, Indonesia, Germany, France, and China.

Global endeavour to replace fossil fuels with biofuels for a sustainable ecosystem has led to significant increase in the production of the latter. Concerns of environmentalists and policymakers across the globe to reduce greenhouse gas pollutant emissions, fossil resource depletion, and dependence on unstable foreign suppliers are expected to further elevate production and consumption of biofuels during the forecast period.

• Fact.MR estimates that biofuel revenue will grow 1.6X from 2022 to 2032, reaching nearly US$ 235.20 Billion by 2032.
• Revenue through bioethanol will account for over 65% share, owing to its suitability in automotive applications.
• Based on feedstock, corn-based biofuel commands over 1/4 of over biofuel revenue.
• Top 5 providers of biofuels held around 21% market share in 2021.

Which are Some Prominent Drivers of Biofuels Market?

Fuel Policy Formulators Maintained a Non-deviated Demand Growth for Biofuels

In certain countries, biofuels demand have been accelerating due to the fuel policymakers’ support. For instance, RenovaBio program in Brazil will necessitate the fuel distributors to obtain emission reduction certificate.

Secondly, the competitive prices of gasoline and bioethanol in the country have been driving fuel demand in favour of biofuels. On the other hand, in the U.S., availability of blender’s tax credit has reduced refiners’ burden of competitiveness for biodiesel blending.

Supply of Sugarcane and Corn – The Equation between Food and Biofuel at the Supply Level

Corn and sugarcane account for over 50% of the required feedstocks for biofuel production. While they are being used in the production of biofuels, their prime utility remains in the production of food products in most countries. Hence, providers of sugarcane and corn need to strike a balance between the two commodities.

In Brazil, while sugarcane is primarily used for biofuel production, corn production has also grown significantly. As compared to 2014, when corn production was under 80 Mn tons in Brazil, in 2020, it crossed the 100 Mn tons mark.

Also, the proportion of corn used in ethanol production has increased significantly over the years. As compared to 44 Mn liters of corn ethanol production in 2014, the country produced 2,500 Mn liters of corn ethanol in 2020, thus reducing dependence on sugarcane. While consumption of corn in ethanol has been growing, production of corn has also increased substantially over the years, thus justifying the balance of supply in food and biofuel sub-sectors.

Research in Progress in Automotive Space – Making Biofuel Providers Expect Better

In July 2021, Volkswagen announced R&D for biofuel-based engines targeted at emerging markets. The research is likely to be mostly carried out in Brazil in conjunction with the government, universities, and agribusinesses. With this, the company also plans to phase out its combustion vehicle production by 2035.

What are the Challenges Faced by the Biofuels Market?

Deforestation for sugarcane production creating roadblocks for growth of biofuels market

Sugarcane-based biofuel generally has good impression on the environmentalist; however, a low degree concern also exists with the issue of deforestation.

With the zeal of increasing the volume of sugarcane plantation to meet both, food and fuel demand, certain areas around the globe are being deforested. It is becoming an agenda of the increased carbon debt, thus raising some eyebrows against the expansion of sugarcane cultivation. Though, if pasture lands are managed as cropland, this issue can be addressed in the mid-to-long term.

Comparative View of Biofuels Markets

Biofuels Market :

Attributes	Biofuels Market
CAGR (2022-2032)	4.8%
Market Value (2032)	US$ 235.20 Billion
Growth Factor	Increasing demand for fuel from the automotive industry is bolstering the demand for biofuel.
Opportunity	Increasing research activities for using different types of feedstock across the globe is creating lucrative opportunities for biofuels.

Wind Turbine Generator Market :

Attributes	Wind Turbine Generator Market
CAGR (2022-2032)	5.4%
Market Value (2032)	US$ 35.4 Billion
Growth Factor	Increasing demand for finding economic alternative to conventional energy is creating lucrative opportunities for wind turbine generator.
Opportunity	Increasing demand for industries to grow with wind power deployment at competitive price is creating growth for wind turbine generators market.

Solar Dryer Market :

Attributes	Solar Dryer Market
CAGR (2022-2032)	6.1%
Market Value (2032)	US$ 4.76 Billion
Growth Factor	Growing Innovation in solar dryers is aiding market expansion.
Opportunity	Several benefits of solar dryers in textile and agriculture industries augmenting market growth.

Which Region is Projected to Offer the Largest Opportunity for Biofuel Suppliers?

With an absolute dollar opportunity of US$ 22.7 Billion, North America will remain the most lucrative region for biofuel demand. North America has sufficient harvest land for sugarcane, corn, as well as soybean production.

This makes it a self-sufficient country in terms of feedstock for biofuels. Transportation, especially trucks, significant use of biodiesel in the U.S., which further makes it a fertile ground for biofuel sales.

Why Does America Continue being the Nucleus of Global Biofuel Production?

Considering the statistics of U.S. Energy Information Administration, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Renewable Fuels Association, and Fact.MR secondary research, total estimated production of biofuels in the U.S. and Brazil in 2020 was over 9.5 Bn gallons.

While the two countries account for over 3/4 of global biofuel production, they also account for nearly 50% of global biofuel demand. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel in both countries are blended with fossil-based transportation fuels. In Brazil, biofuel for automotive directly competes with gasoline.

Country-wise Analysis

Sustainable Production of Biofuels Accelerating Growth of Market in China?

Bioethanol production contributing to market growth in China

In China, bioethanol is produced from corn and cassava. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), ethanol consumption accounts for nearly 2% of its fuel demand; however, by 2024, it is expected to rise to more than triple.

Although China has already taken a strong stance to curb emissions through the electrification of its vehicles, its focus on biofuels can provide another alternative to users and policymakers alike. Thus, China is expected to register a CAGR of 6% for biofuels market.

Investment in Alternative Biofuel Infrastructure Bolstering Growth in Indonesia?

Vehicular electrification increasing rapid adoption of biofuels

Indonesia is known for its significant investments in biofuel infrastructure to meet its alternative fuel goal. The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), also known as the Indonesian think tank, has projected biofuel demand in the country to reach 190 Mn tons by 2050.

At the same time, the government has also shown its ambition for vehicular electrification. With this, the Indonesian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (KADIN) predicts the country to become the world’s largest producer of lithium batteries in the coming years.

This makes a tweak in country’s objective of achieving 93 Million tons of biofuel demand by 2050 if the market for electric vehicles rises greater than expectations. Thus, Indonesia is expected to register a CAGR of 5% for biofuels market.

Country-wise Forecast CAGRs for the Biofuels Industry

Country	CAGR
China	6%
Indonesia	5%
U.S.	7%
Canada	5%

Category-wise Insights

Renewability of Ethanol Fuel Attracting Manufacturers for Production of Biofuels?

Ethanol’s usability for vehicular fuel gaining traction

Bioethanol is expected to account for over 65% revenue in the market in 2022. Ethanol, being a renewable fuel, can be produced from several plant materials known as biomass. As a blending agent for gasoline, ethanol is used to increase octane in vehicles and reduce carbon monoxide and smog-mixed emissions.

Easy Availability of Corn Increasing Use for Biofuel Production?

Rapid production of corn increasing production of biofuel

Corn accounted for over 30% of biofuel feedstock used globally. It is a highly available feedstock for the production of biofuel. However, requirement of sugarcane- and vegetable oil-based biofuels has also been increasing at a rapid pace.

Start-Ups for Biofuels Market

Key start-up players in the biofuel market are Innoltek, Manta Biofuel, Biofuel Evolution, Neozeo and Celtic Renewables

• Swedish start-up Neozeo is focusing on creating modules by using agricultural and municipal organic waste. Thus, the company’s system utilizes pressure swing adsorption technology along with porous materials to create biofuels.
• The US-based start-up, Manta Biofuel, a key player in the biofuels market is focusing on producing carbon-neutral crude oil biofuel. By harvesting algae in open ponds, the company utilizes patented magnetic harvesting technology that helps in collecting concentrated biomass. Furthermore, the company uses this convert the material into biofuel using hydrothermal liquefaction reactors.

Competitive Landscape

Key market players in the biofuel production are Bunge Limited, Archer Daniels Midland Company, Valero Energy Corp, Petrobras, Butamax, Renewable Energy Corp, Wilmar International, Algenol, Pacific Ethanol Inc., Poet, Llc, Flint Hills Resources, The Andersons, Inc., Raizen S.A., Copersucar S.A., Abengoa, S. A and Alpha Biofuels

According to Fact.MR’s market research analysis, innovations as well as product development have been prominent developments related to biofuel in recent years.

• In July 2021, Alpha Biofuels, a Singapore based company announced that it has blended its biofuel at its Tuas plant, wherein, it was converted from cooking oil that it had collected from food & beverage manufacturers. In the same month, it is also used as trial in the vessel The Frontier Jacaranda, which sailed on 93% standard fuel and 7% biofuel.

Key Segments Profiled in the Industry Survey

• By Type :

  • Biodiesel-based 
  • Bioethanol-based 
  • Other Biofuel Types

• By Feedstock :

  • Corn-based 
  • Sugarcane-based 
  • Vegetable Oil-based 
  • Other Feedstock-based Biofuel

• By Application :

  • Land Transport
  • Shipping
  • Other Applications

• By Region :

  • North America 
  • Latin America 
  • Europe 
  • East Asia 
  • South Asia 
  • Oceania 
  • Middle East & Africa