Automotive Gear Oil Market

Automotive Gear Oil Market Outlook (2024 to 2034)

According to a new Fact.MR study, the global automotive gear oil market size is projected to be valued at US$ 3.59 billion in 2024. Worldwide demand for automotive gear oil is forecasted to increase at 3.4% CAGR and reach a market value of US$ 5.01 billion by the end of 2034.

Noteworthy expansion of the automotive sector is set to positively impact demand for gear oil. Growing production and sales of vehicles are predicted to generate requirements for gear oil utilized in differentials, transmissions, and other gear systems. Further, the rising number of vehicles on the road around the world is predicted to increase demand for gear oils for the servicing and maintenance of these vehicles as periodic oil changes are essential for the effective functioning of vehicles.

Implementation of stringent economic standards and environmental regulations is forecasted to lead to the development of vehicles with improved efficiency and better performance. This gives rise to the need for regular oil changes to maintain the health of respective vehicles. Increased industrial activities and rapid urbanization in emerging economies generally result in the purchase of more vehicles, which subsequently pushes the demand for automotive gear oil.

Aftermarket distribution is forecasted to contribute significantly to overall automotive gear oil market growth. With aging vehicles, the requirements for maintenance, including changing gear oil, have become pivotal. In addition, modifications done in vehicle components, such as customization or performance enhancements are expected to contribute to market growth.

• Sales of automotive gear oil in East Asia are projected to increase at a CAGR of 4.4% and reach US$ 1.95 billion by the end of 2034.
• Demand for mineral-based oil is forecasted to rise at 3.9% CAGR from 2024 to 2034.
• Passenger vehicles are projected to account for 54.9% automotive gear oil market share by 2034.

Increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is also set to positively impact demand for automotive gear oil, as gear systems are present in these vehicles, which is projected to contribute to the expansion of the automotive gear oil market size.

Report Attributes	Details
Automotive Gear Oil Market Size (2024E)	US$ 3.59 Billion
Forecasted Market Value (2034F)	US$ 5.01 Billion
Global Market Growth Rate (2024 to 2034)	3.4% CAGR
North America Market Share (2024E)	24.7%
Japan Market Growth Rate (2024 to 2034)	5.2% CAGR
Mineral-based Oil Segment Market Share (2034F)	63.4%
Key Companies Profiled	Exxon Mobil Corporation Shell PLC TOTAL S.A. BP PLC FUCHS National Petroleum Corporation ZF Friedrichshafen AG China National Petroleum Corporation Chevron Corporation Valvoline LLC Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited Ferdinand Bilstein GmbH Co. KG VIEROL AG Elofic Industries Limited Hengst SE and Co. KG.

Automotive Gear Oil Market Growth Being Driven?

“Growing Sales of Automobiles Generating More Opportunities for Gear Oil Suppliers”

Expansion of the automotive sector along with technological advancements and rising demand for fuel-efficient and high-performance vehicles is predicted to generate demand for automotive gear oil across regions during the projected timeframe. Increasing sales of automobiles are attributed to the growing disposable income and positive economic outlook.

Increased need for high-performance heavy vehicles is attributed to the expansion of several sectors, including construction and mining. Developing countries around the world are predicted to generate growth opportunities for players with favorable demographics and an increasing middle-class population, which is projected to stimulate expenditure on leisure activities. These factors are cumulatively generating new horizons for the expansion of the market size.

Expanding manufacturing sector, technological advancements, and demographics with increased middle-class population with high spending capacity are some of the crucial factors contributing to growing demand for high-performance vehicles, subsequently increasing the sales of automotive gear oil.

Which Challenges Do Manufacturers Need to Overcome to Remain Competitive in the Market?

“Fluctuations in Prices of Raw Materials and High Maintenance Costs”

Constant fluctuations in the cost of raw materials are projected to directly impact the price of final products, therefore putting limitations on the demand for automotive gear oil. In addition, end users need to spend significantly on the replacement and maintenance of gear oil, which is an expensive affair.

What Opportunities Await Startups in This Business Landscape?

“Focus on Investments in Technological Innovations to Produce Efficient Gear Oil”

Investments by startups are expected to lead to technological innovations, which will result in the development of more efficient automotive gear oil. Increasing sales of new vehicles and servicing and maintenance of existing vehicles are predicted to lead to an increased demand for periodic gear oil changes, therefore generating opportunities for new players in the market.

Country-wise Insights

Fact.MR, a market research and competitive intelligence provider, through its newly published analysis, asserts that East Asia is projected to account for 38.9% share of the global market by 2034-end. The dominance of the region is owing to the strong presence of prominent automotive companies. In addition, constant initiatives taken by regional governments to develop public transportation infrastructure are attracting automotive gear oil market trends in East Asia.

What’s Projected to Increase Sales of Automotive Gear Oil in the United States?

“Open Automotive Investment Policies and Focus on Innovation”

Attribute	United States
Market Value (2024E)	US$ 754.7 Million
Growth Rate (2024 to 2034)	2.3% CAGR
Projected Value (2034F)	US$ 945.2 Million

The United States is projected to hold 84.2% of the North American market by 2034. An increasing number of R&D activities and innovations in the automotive sector is projected to influence market growth in this country. Further, these initiatives are projected to transform the automotive sector in the United States in the coming 10 years.

Millennials and Gen-Z are the prominent end users of different types of vehicles. Growing sales of vehicles along with the need for appropriate maintenance are resulting in increasing sales of automotive gear oil. Furthermore, a favorable production environment, available infrastructure, skilled workforce, and open investment policies are expected to generate lucrative opportunities for players in the United States.

What is Expected from the Market in China Over the Decade?

“Emphasis on Fleet Expansion and Growing Vehicle Ownership”

Attribute	China
Market Value (2024E)	US$ 1.03 Billion
Growth Rate (2024 to 2034)	4.3% CAGR
Projected Value (2034F)	US$ 1.57 Billion

China is forecasted to contribute 80.7% share of the market in East Asia by 2034. Infrastructural developments and continual urbanization are predicted to lead to an increased need for modes of transportation, which result in the modernization and expansion of fleets. The introduction of new vehicles and the presence of existing automobiles will drive demand for automotive gear oil.

With the increasing spending capacity of the Chinese population, demand for personal vehicles is set to increase going forward. Surging ownership of vehicles, such as heavy-duty trucks, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles, is predicted to drive the demand for automotive gear oil to maintain the gearboxes of these vehicles.

Category-wise Insights

More fleet owners or individual vehicle owners are emphasizing the installation of improved and high-performance lubricants in their respective vehicles, which is further contributing to the demand for mineral-based gear oil, as per the market analysis published by Fact.MR.

Will Rising Sales of Passenger Vehicles Stimulate Demand for Automotive Gear Oil?

“Growing Awareness about Periodic Maintenance for Enhanced Vehicle Operation”

Attribute	Passenger Vehicles
Segment Value (2024E)	US$ 2.08 Billion
Growth Rate (2024 to 2034)	2.8% CAGR
Projected Value (2034F)	US$ 2.75 Billion

Passenger vehicles are forecasted to account for 54.9% share of the global market by 2034. Passenger cars are a popular means of transportation across developed countries. Further, increasing per capita income is set to lead to a growing number of passenger vehicles across developing countries as well. The growing middle-class population and improving standard of living are pushing the demand for automobiles due to people’s growing spending capacity.

There is an increased need for automotive gear oil for the smooth running of passenger cars. Gear oil ensures the protection of components from friction and wear, thus assisting in smooth functioning. As car owners become more aware of the significance of maintenance, there is a noticeable rise in the demand for automotive gear oil.

Competitive Landscape

The market is fragmented fairly with the presence of some prominent players. This fragmentation offers high bargaining power to respective customers and creates a competitive environment. OEMs are offering model-specific oil according to the requirements of end users and minimizing CO2 emissions. They are investing in offering quality products, new developments, strengthening their supply chain management systems, etc.

For instance :

• Shell Midstream Partners, L. P., and Shell USA entered a partnership in July 2022 to execute their plan of a merger. The latter is expected to acquire common units representing the interest of a limited partner in SHLX, which were held by the public. This transaction was expected to be carried out by the fourth quarter of 2022.

Key players in the automotive gear oil market are ExxonMobil Corporation, Shell PLC, TOTAL S.A., BP PLC, FUCHS National Petroleum Corporation, ZF Friedrichshafen AG, China National Petroleum Corporation, Chevron Corporation, Valvoline LLC, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, Ferdinand Bilstein gmbH Co. KG, VIEROL AG, Elofic Industries Limited, and Hengst SE and Co. KG.

Segmentation of Automotive Gear Oil Market Research

• By Source :

  • Mineral-based
  • Synthetic-based

• By Vehicle Category :

  • Passenger Vehicles
  • Commercial Vehicles
  • Two/Three Wheelers

• By Transmission :

  • Automatic
  • Manual

• By Distribution Channel :

  • OEMs
  • Aftermarket

• By Region :

  • North America
  • Europe
  • East Asia
  • Latin America
  • Middle East & Africa
  • South Asia & Oceania